Posting Monday’s Special early because things are happening so rapidly. Sunday Comics are here.
We’re posting Monday’s Special early because things are happening so rapidly in Ukraine. Sunday Comics are here. This post is mostly links, with a bit of comment.
First some basics.
Twenty-three maps that show how the area now occupied by Ukraine has changed hands over the centuries. The headline somewhat overdoes it; many conclusions are possible from these maps. But it does show how the area has been under many jurisdictions, with many ethnic groups involved. I think the maps may have come from this video, which shows how Europe has changed over the past thousand or so years. The New York Times has present-day maps that show the Crimean Peninsula, and language groups and gas pipelines in Ukraine.
Update (evening of 1 March; same date for other updates unless otherwise indicated): Why it is “Ukraine,” and not “the Ukraine.”
Treaties governing the Black Sea Fleet. That is the Russian fleet that is based in Sevastapol. Russia leases the base from Ukraine. What does the Black Sea Fleet look like, militarily?
The Budapest Memorandum is the agreement among Ukraine, Russia, the US and Britain for Ukraine sending the nukes that remained on its territory after the breakup of the Soviet Union. Russia, the US, and Britain agreed to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity. That’s not the same as defending it. More at the link.
The Russian Duma has passed a measure authorizing President Vladimir Putin to use military force in all of Ukraine. An English translation of the text is here.
Readouts of Saturday’s phone call between Putin and US President Barack Obama from the White House and from the Russian President’s office. The call went 90 minutes, and it sounds like it wasn’t friendly. Also: Kremlin readouts of calls between Putin and United Nations Secretary-General Ban-Ki Moon and between Putin and French President Francois Hollande. Kind of a cool mouseover map on that Russian President’s site.
Update: President Putin’s telephone conversation with Federal Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel. Later developments seem to be that Putin has accepted Merkel’s offer of mediation. Details to be announced.
US Secretary of State John Kerry’s statement of March 1.
Statement from NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen.
Update: G-7 Leaders’ Statement. That number got some tweets. My interpretation is that it indicates the number of leaders who signed it. It could be increased back to what it’s been for a while if all goes well. This is just a warning.
Situation Reports
Parts of these will go out of date pretty quickly, but there are other parts that will continue to be relevant. I have been retweeting what I think are reliable reports on my own Twitter (@cherylrofer) and more basic documents on @NuclearDiner. The New York Times is doing a reasonable job of reporting events, and they are as reliable as you’re going to get.
Update: Important and not well reported. The acting president of Ukraine vetoed the law annulling an earlier law that allowed for Russian to be an official language in addition to Ukrainian. Note that, in any case it was the official status that was at risk, not the use of Russian by citizens. I have seen this development noted only here, toward the end of the second paragraph, with a link to a short Ukrainian-language note. I can’t read Ukrainian, and Google Translate isn’t a whole lot better, so I am taking this somewhat on faith and would like a better link.
Report from Ukraine’s EU Embassy (1 March)
David Remnick: Putin Goes To War. Remnick is one of the small number of journalists who understand Russia, so I’ll recommend following his articles. Seems like most of those journalists have spent significant time in Russia or the neighboring countries. Funny how that works.
Timothy Snyder: Ukraine: The Fog of Propaganda. If you’ve been reading what I’ve been writing, you’ll know that Snyder is another of those knowledgeable journalists you should follow. Another from him on what Europe can do to help change Putin’s mind.
Backgroundy/Opiniony Stuff
The State Department released a report last Thursday on Russia’s human rights record for 2013. If you’ve been reading the news, you can probably figure it’s not good.
It’s possible to be surprised by particular moves, but what is happening in Ukraine is consistent with previous Russian/Soviet moves and was anticipated by the State Department. It’s not possible to predict exactly when and how something like this will happen, but the generalities may be clear.
Update: The Moscow Times is critical of the invasion, here and here.
Former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder on possible American responses.
Anne Applebaum: Vladimir Putin doesn’t need to invade Ukraine. He can destabilize it from the Kremlin.
Mark Galeotti: Why I still don’t think Russia wants to annex the Crimea. And why, if that’s what Russia wants, Ukraine might let them have the Crimea.
Along with the previous two, Joshua Tucker and I posted reasons why invading Crimea, or worse, Ukraine, is a really bad idea for Vladimir Putin. Mine was written Thursday night, before the invasion was fully under way. I suspect Tucker’s was written at about the same time. Galeotti’s seems to have been written later. The bottom line is that all those reasons why a military invasion is not in the Kremlin’s interest are good ones. But national decisions are not necessarily made on the basis of rationality. Russia will be harmed by this, or perhaps Galeotti is right, and Russia will back off.
Jacob Heilbrunn: Russia’s weakness, not Obama’s. Mary Mycio makes some similar points: Crimea, and even more, eastern Ukraine, may be more than Russia can hold on to. Also see Mark Galeotti’s second link above. The Soviet Union overreached into Europe after World War II, and it was those satellites and republics that precipitated its downfall. Here’s one of the exit strategies that Heilbrunn mentions. The OSCE has played an important role in stabilizing the former Soviet space.
Ah, here’s an idea: let the Ukrainians choose. So much commentary focuses on Russian desires for its near abroad or American/EU interests in more open trade and society in Ukraine. The Russian view, historically, has had short shrift for the people who must live in their buffer states. Perhaps those people have other ideas.
Finally, a deep background piece by Strobe Talbott, who worked with Russia for the Clinton Administration in the 1990s. Talbott points out that Russia is taking a hardline win-lose approach to foreign relations and assumes all other countries do the same. Turning that around looks difficult.
Cheryl
Links to previous Ukraine Updates here.
Photo: People attend a rally against Russia on Kiev’s Independence square on March 2, 2014. (Kyiv Post)
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