Links and some thoughts.
Ukraine’s economy has been in desperate straits for some time now. Economic weakness was part of President Victor Yanukovych’s calculation in accepting the Russian offer of financial aid that helped to set off the protests last fall. Anders Åslund explains the situation and possible ways forward.
Reporters are working together to preserve documents from Yanukovich’s estate, some of which were dumped in a lake. The documents are being posted on yanukovichleaks.org. They are the record of the money that Yanukovych skimmed from the government. One estimate I saw on Twitter (and therefore unconfirmed) is $12 billion, almost as much as the $15 billion offered by the Russian government.
It is that corruption that seems to be the primary reason for the demonstrations leading to Yanukovich’s ouster. A number of alternative narratives are growing, however, that fit the events into narratives familiar to Americans. This is unfortunate. Most Americans, even the most educated, have little sense of the history and culture of the area between Germany and Russia. The narratives of World War II in France and Britain simply do not apply. Timothy Snyder gives an introduction to thinking about this; I may write later about it, when I’m ready to face the indignation it will bring. And yes, I’ve linked Snyder’s article before, and I will keep doing so as long as I see the gross misunderstandings being perpetrated.
And then there are the visions of splitting Ukraine, sometimes enlivened by Russian invasion, that American reporters favor. Yes, I know war makes great reporting and sells a lot of papers, but please, people, don’t you have some responsibility for something besides your monetary interest?
The signs that I see within Ukraine look peaceful and not ethnically split to me. Let me enumerate some positive signs that get lost in the hollering about fascism and the warmongering. 1) Once Yanukovich was out, the demonstrations ended. 2) The leadership of the opposition has been quite diverse. 3)The crowds that visited Yanukovich’s palace were quiet and peaceful. No graffiti, no broken windows. 4) The reporters who are working together to piece together his documents. 5) Parliament has taken up its responsibility to govern the country. 6) As I write, the fence is being taken down from around the Parliament building. 7) The Berkut (special riot police) has been disbanded.
Those are no guarantee, of course, and some will point to the annulling of the law making both Ukrainian and Russian the official languages of the country. That was poor judgement on the part of the parliament. It’s not a justification, just context: Requirement of Russian as the only official language and extermination of other languages, including Ukrainian, was the policy of the Soviet Union, sometimes enforced brutally. Language has been a point of culture war in this area for a long time, so it is not surprising that it showed up in this way. It does not outlaw the Russian language, as some are saying, simply removes it as an official language.
And I suspect (but, like many others commenting on the subject, have no direct evidence beyond what I read on the internet) that the language/culture issue is less important to individual Ukrainians than it is a wedge issue to be used by the Russians. My experience with people in Estonia whose primary language was Russian was that after a few days, they relaxed into Estonian words as well as Russian and English. When you’re surrounded by a language, you pick it up. My sense of Ukraine is that distinctions between language groups are sharper than they have become in Estonia, but, if things are allowed to evolve peacefully and with respect, people will adjust, and Russian will be restored or informally accepted as a language for official business.
It’s easy for reporters to split people by these ethnic divisions and attribute uniform political leanings, but my experience is that people are much more complicated than that. And hey, reporters, doesn’t that verge on racism?
It looks like the government is coming together to work with the IMF, the EU, and the US on the economic issues. US diplomats have been conferring with Vladimir Putin. A combined effort would be the best.
Putin’s response is unclear. He has alerted troops, which may merely be a warning. The focus of Russian concern at the moment seems to be the Crimean Peninsula, where Russia has naval bases. Much of the population there is Russian, but, as in so many places, the Soviet Union moved ethnic Russian people there to solidify Moscow’s hold and to minimize local culture and language. The Crimean Tatars are the people who lived there before. The attempts of the Soviets to Russianize their holdings have caused deep damage and continue to polarize people.
I am very wary of Western judgements of Putin’s state of mind. I have seen a number of justifications, including Russia’s historically perceived need for strategic depth, which unfortunately for the people living around Russia has led to those Russification attempts. Putin is a creature of the Soviet Union and the KGB, but he also lives in the post-Soviet world. Economics is a problem for Russia, too, and a war will not help that. An economically healthy Ukraine would.
So I will watch for actions. Pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian demonstrators are facing off in Crimea, apparently without major damage so far. The Russian Duma wants to issue passports to “ethnic Russians” in Crimea, a tactic used in Georgia to allow the excuse that military action is saving Russian citizens. But there are good reasons for Russia not to invade.
Ukraine is much larger than Georgia, and military operations would be much more difficult.
Stuff that doesn’t quite fit my thoughts this morning:
Documents reveal huge assault was planned to crush Kiev protests
A Problem Like Viktor; Not Just Geopolitics: The Institutional Background to Ukraine’s Problems. These two posts from Crooked Timber give some of the background on Ukraine’s governmental problems. They were written before Yanukovych fled, but the rest of what they say is helpful.
Statement by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs regarding the events in Ukraine
Update at the end of the day:
It’s a good thing Ukraine doesn’t have nuclear weapons. It did once.
More about how they were removed.
Perhaps it’s time to recognize that Ukraine’s perceived divisions are in fact simply typical signs of diversity; they are not a liability, but a sign of cultural richness, and can, if harnessed and embraced, provide the foundations for the emergence of a vibrant and differentiated democracy.
About that language issue: Heartland Of Ukrainian Nationalism, Lviv Speaks Russian, For A Day, To Ease East-West Divide
More Ukrainians you should know
Paul Goble, who has been watching this area for a long time, has two very interesting thoughts on events in Ukraine. If Putin was surprised by events in Ukraine, he’s repeating history; Gorbachev didn’t believe there was a problem in the Baltics. And – Is Putin at risk of becoming a Kerensky? Calling in help to put down the rebellion has its own risks.
Secretary of State John Kerry: “President Putin, in a telephone conversation with President Obama just the other day, committed to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine.”
Photo: Fence being removed from around the Parliament building.
